IMF warns: Rising risks in the Middle East are weighing on the global economy

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy is gradually moving toward a more negative scenario, amid the persistence and prolongation of conflicts in the Middle East and the growing geopolitical and economic repercussions they carry for energy markets and global trade.

Escalating geopolitical risks

According to the Fund’s assessments, the continuation of tensions in the region is increasing uncertainty in global markets, undermining investor confidence, and affecting trade flows and supply chains, particularly in the vital maritime corridors that pass through the region.

The report argues that geopolitical risks have become a key factor in shaping the path of global growth, rather than merely a temporary variable, making the economy more vulnerable to sudden fluctuations.

Direct impact on energy and prices

The IMF indicates that any disruption in the Middle East is quickly reflected in oil and gas prices, leading to inflationary pressures in a number of economies, especially those that import energy.

Higher energy costs also feed into the prices of basic goods and affect households’ purchasing power, exacerbating social pressures in a number of countries.

Slowdown in global trade

It also notes that prolonged conflicts are redrawing trade and shipping routes and increasing transport and insurance costs, putting pressure on global growth and delaying the recovery of some emerging economies.

It further warns that if this situation persists, some companies may reconsider their supply chains, potentially creating instability in global production.

More cautious scenarios

Based on these indicators, the International Monetary Fund says the outlook has become more cautious, with the pace of global growth likely to slow if geopolitical conditions remain unchanged.

The report stresses that the global economy remains resilient, but it has become more fragile in the face of external shocks, especially those originating from conflict zones.