Lebanon accelerates its contacts to secure a ceasefire

Lebanese contacts with the US mediator are advancing amid a complex political and diplomatic race in which the domestic and regional dimensions are intertwined, in an attempt to reach a comprehensive and final ceasefire, amid official recognition that the current phase may be among the most sensitive since the start of the open confrontation on the southern front.

A senior political source told Kuwait’s Al-Anbaa that “the ongoing deliberations between Lebanon and the American side are still continuing at the highest official levels, particularly at the presidential level, within a negotiating track shrouded in complete secrecy to avoid any pressure or leaks that could affect the chances of progress or reshuffle the cards at an extremely delicate moment.”

According to the source, “the indicators beginning to accumulate behind the scenes in political and diplomatic circles suggest the possibility of a gradual breakthrough in the ceasefire file, especially with the intensification of communication channels among the Lebanese presidencies concerned with the issue, foremost among them the Presidency of the Republic and the Speakership of Parliament, where coordination is proceeding at an accelerated and organized pace to keep up with the rapid developments linked to the ongoing negotiations, whether those directly connected to the Lebanese arena or to the regional balances that have come to control a large part of the course of the crisis.”

This coordination, according to informed circles, reflects “a Lebanese attempt to show a degree of internal cohesion in managing the negotiations, in the face of the political and military pressure exerted by Israel, which seeks to impose new realities that go beyond field de-escalation toward redrawing the political and security rules of engagement in the border area. Hence, Beirut appears keen to anchor its negotiating priorities on the basis that any understanding cannot be limited to a temporary ceasefire, but must constitute an entry point to a comprehensive solution that includes a full withdrawal, the release of prisoners, the return of the displaced, and the start of reconstruction.”

But behind this relatively consensual atmosphere, differences still persist over the means adopted to reach the shared goals. While the majority of political forces converge on the need to reach a final ceasefire, secure a full withdrawal, ensure the return of the displaced, and begin reconstruction, disagreement remains over the form of the political and diplomatic approach, particularly with regard to the issue of direct negotiations with Israel.

Available information indicates that official Lebanon is trying to capitalize on the current international and regional moment to wrest a more durable settlement, benefiting from the need of international powers to prevent the war from expanding and turning into a full-scale regional confrontation. However, success in this remains tied to many factors that go beyond the Lebanese arena itself, foremost among them the ability of regional negotiating tracks to produce viable understandings, at a time when the entire region is still moving atop delicate balances that could be shaken at any moment.