International counterterrorism and information warfare expert Colonel Hatem Saber said in statements to Sputnik that the region stands before three possible paths following the faltering of the Islamabad talks, suggesting that the coming phase will be highly sensitive on both the security and political levels.
He explained that the first scenario is “controlled escalation,” based on an exchange of limited strikes without reaching a full-scale confrontation, with the possibility of rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the exchange of military messages at sea.
The second scenario, he said, is “the brink of the abyss,” in which both sides may resort to rapid and sharp escalation aimed at improving their negotiating terms, before the door is later reopened to a return to the negotiating track through international mediation.
By contrast, he noted that the third scenario, represented by a “full-scale explosion” or the outbreak of a broad war involving strikes deep inside Iran, remains the least likely option given its dangerous repercussions for regional stability and the global economy.
Saber said he expects the situation to move toward a phase of “neither peace nor war,” with confrontations escalating indirectly through regional proxies and continued military pressure, warning that the coming days may bring new escalatory developments pending greater clarity over the direction of the parties concerned.
