Beyond the Regional Clamor... Murky Scenarios Close In on Lebanon, and Beware the Spark of Strife

At a time when regional and international files are increasingly intertwined, and maps of influence are being redrawn to the rhythm of crises, Lebanon once again finds itself facing a storm of analyses and scenarios that raise concern about its future and its role in the region.

In recent days, circulating talk has emerged about plans involving the new Syrian leadership, headed by Ahmad al-Sharaa, entering Lebanon, or about foreign interventions under various pretexts, amid a sensitive security and political climate. Yet these propositions were met with official assurances from both the Lebanese and Syrian leaderships, as the Lebanese and Syrian presidents stressed that relations between the two countries must rest on clear foundations of cooperation and mutual respect, and that the coming phase should be one of economic and developmental cooperation in the interest of both peoples.

But amid these assurances, the question remains legitimate: why are such scenarios being pumped out at this particular moment? And who stands to benefit from reigniting fears and opening the door to doubt between two countries bound by geography, history, and shared interests?

The most dangerous threat the region may face is not only direct wars, but wars of sedition and rumors that pave the way for chaos and division. Past experiences have shown that some major powers may see the region’s crises as an opportunity to rearrange influence and secure their interests, while the peoples alone pay the price of open-ended conflicts.

Lebanon today is in no position to bear new adventures. A country emerging from suffocating economic and social crises, and one that has suffered division and destruction, cannot be a testing ground for new political or security experiments, nor a card to be used in the conflicts of others.

Arab states must realize the gravity of this stage and move before it is too late, because any major explosion in Lebanon will not remain confined within its borders. Its repercussions will cross frontiers and could set the entire region ablaze. The Middle East is living atop a land filled with tensions, and any spark could turn into a fire that is difficult to extinguish.

Lebanon is not easy prey, nor is it a country whose fate others get to decide through war or peace. The future of nations must not be drawn up in closed rooms far from the will of their peoples, nor should small states be turned into arenas that pay the price of great-power struggles.

Enough of using Lebanon as an arena for exchanged messages.

Enough of turning peoples into fuel in battles over influence.

And enough of allowing strife to seep among the sons of one الوطن.

Wisdom today is not an option, but a necessity. The historic responsibility rests on all Lebanese and Arab leaders to prevent any project aimed at undermining stability or dragging the region into a new confrontation.

Lebanon needs rebuilding, not wars. It needs cooperation, not divisions. It needs a strong state that protects it, not conflicts that turn it into a new victim in the game of nations.

Beware the fire of strife... because whoever ignites it may not have the power to put it out.